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Abstract The emergency generated by the current COVID-19 pandemic has claimed millions of lives worldwide. There have been multiple waves across the globe that emerged as a result of new variants, due to arising from unavoidable mutations. The existing network toolbox to study epidemic spreading cannot be readily adapted to the study of multiple, coexisting strains. In this context, particularly lacking are models that could elucidate re-infection with the same strain or a different strain—phenomena that we are seeing experiencing more and more with COVID-19. Here, we establish a novel mathematical model to study the simultaneous spreading of two strains over a class of temporal networks. We build on the classical susceptible–exposed–infectious–removed model, by incorporating additional states that account for infections and re-infections with multiple strains. The temporal network is based on the activity-driven network paradigm, which has emerged as a model of choice to study dynamic processes that unfold at a time scale comparable to the network evolution. We draw analytical insight from the dynamics of the stochastic network systems through a mean-field approach, which allows for characterizing the onset of different behavioral phenotypes (non-epidemic, epidemic, and endemic). To demonstrate the practical use of the model, we examine an intermittent stay-at-home containment strategy, in which a fraction of the population is randomly required to isolate for a fixed period of time.more » « less
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Hasanyan, Jalil; Zino, Lorenzo; Burbano Lombana, Daniel Alberto; Rizzo, Alessandro; Porfiri, Maurizio (, Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences)Social groups such as schools of fish or flocks of birds display collective dynamics that can be modulated by group leaders, which facilitate decision-making toward a consensus state beneficial to the entire group. For instance, leaders could alert the group about attacking predators or the presence of food sources. Motivated by biological insight on social groups, we examine a stochastic leader–follower consensus problem where information sharing among agents is affected by perceptual constraints and each individual has a different tendency to form social connections. Leveraging tools from stochastic stability and eigenvalue perturbation theories, we study the consensus protocol in a mean-square sense, offering necessary-and-sufficient conditions for asymptotic stability and closed-form estimates of the convergence rate. Surprisingly, the prediction of our minimalistic model share similarities with observed traits of animal and human groups. Our analysis anticipates the counterintuitive result that heterogeneity can be beneficial to group decision-making by improving the convergence rate of the consensus protocol. This observation finds support in theoretical and empirical studies on social insects such as spider or honeybee colonies, as well as human teams, where inter-individual variability enhances the group performance.more » « less
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